← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 38% | 47% | 2.57 | value: +20% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33% | 25% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Paco Van Moorsel · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 59' | 🟨 | Paco Van Moorsel · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wojciech Golla · NEC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 81' | 🟨 | Roy Kortsmit · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2066.00 | 786.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 3.19 |
| elo | 1465.69 | 1381.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.29 | -7.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.68 | -1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |