← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 65% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.46 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 13% | 14% | 7.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Roda JC |
| 10' | 🟨 | Stefano Marzo · SC Heerenveen |
| 54' | 🟥 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ard Van Peppen · Roda JC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 269.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.08 |
| elo | 1559.39 | 1427.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.42 | 14.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.70 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.87 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |