← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 39% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 32% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.48 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kasper Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ruben Jenssen · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jason Davidson · FC Groningen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 208.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| elo | 1551.91 | 1607.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.97 | 12.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.61 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |