← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 46% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +4% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ruben Schaken · ADO Den Haag |
| 26' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 46' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1119.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.36 |
| elo | 1416.94 | 1562.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.02 | 11.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |