← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 71' | 🟨 | Kostas Lamprou · Willem II Tilburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 82' | 🟨 | Anouar Kali · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 263.00 | 902.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 4.03 |
| elo | 1453.58 | 1614.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.49 | -34.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.50 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.59 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |