← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 59% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.13 | value: +4% |
| Vitesse win | 18% | 17% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 67' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 263.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.84 |
| elo | 1588.71 | 1846.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.35 | 5.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| league points | 33.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.36 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.53 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |