← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 37% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 35% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Paco Van Moorsel · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 17' | ⚽ | Ivan Calero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 21' | ⚽ | Ruben Jenssen · FC Groningen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 52' | 🟥 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 780.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.75 |
| elo | 1378.16 | 1555.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.91 | 8.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.83 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.23 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |