← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 78% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.72 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 7% | 10% | 13.50 | value: +42% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | ⚽ | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ruben Schaken · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1114.00 | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 8.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 10.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.89 |
| elo | 1420.49 | 1746.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.46 | 31.47 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 17.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.59 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.40 |
| state index | -1.25 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |