← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 49% | 57% | 2.01 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 25% | 18% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Bram Van Polen · FC Utrecht |
| 49' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hervin Ongenda · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 598.00 | 1358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.63 |
| elo | 1599.04 | 1492.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.00 | 19.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| league points | 34.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.05 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |