← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 43% | 46% | 2.26 | value: +5% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Erwin Mulder · SC Heerenveen |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 201.00 | 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.81 |
| elo | 1553.76 | 1568.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.89 | -15.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |