← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 86% | 90% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 9.98 | fair |
| NEC win | 4% | 3% | 22.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2059.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1860.18 | 1467.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.54 | -13.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.14 |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |