← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 24% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 34' | 🟥 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 36' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 42' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 58' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 59' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mike te Wierik · Heracles |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 932.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.13 |
| elo | 1506.62 | 1391.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.54 | -10.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |