← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 25% | 22% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sebastien Locigno · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 70' | ⚽ | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1419.80 | 1396.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.83 | 19.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |