← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 74% | 80% | 1.32 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.80 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 9% | 7% | 10.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 592.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1871.02 | 1620.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.37 | 11.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 46.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.62 |
| squad age | — | 25.05 |
| state index | 1.61 | 0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |