← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 39% | 41% | 2.52 | fair |
| AZ win | 34% | 32% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Muamer Tanković · AZ |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Iliass Bel Hassani · AZ |
| 79' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Bijker · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 895.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.06 |
| elo | 1578.51 | 1623.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.05 | -8.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.52 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |