← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 42% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 31% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 15' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 35' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 195.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.57 |
| elo | 1388.81 | 1556.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.77 | -15.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |