← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 88% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.67 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 5% | 3% | 20.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | David Mendes · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 35' | 🟨 | Michel Breuer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 61' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 773.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.40 |
| elo | 1851.64 | 1379.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.36 | -22.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| league points | 49.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 21.73 | — |
| state index | 1.59 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |