← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 60% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.96 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 16% | 14% | 6.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Katuku Derrick Tshimanga · Willem II Tilburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kelvin Leerdam · Vitesse |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dico Koppers · Willem II Tilburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dico Koppers · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Obbi Oulare · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Obbi Oulare · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1612.78 | 1429.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.58 | -8.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| league points | 33.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |