← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.48 | value: +11% |
| Roda JC win | 24% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 84' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 87' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 925.00 | 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.69 |
| elo | 1510.81 | 1415.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.05 | -0.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.76 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |