← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 43% | 42% | 2.28 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 44' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 73' | 🟥 | Ernestas Šetkus · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rochdi Achenteh · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 376.00 | 1106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.41 |
| elo | 1382.28 | 1435.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | -26.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |