← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 82% | 1.28 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.23 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 8% | 6% | 11.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Desevio Payne · FC Groningen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 75' | 🟥 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.67 | 3.37 |
| elo | 1740.79 | 1561.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.28 | 8.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.72 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.91 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| league points | 54.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.24 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |