← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 55% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.84 | fair |
| NEC win | 20% | 18% | 4.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 71' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michael Heinloth · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1350.00 | 2051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.45 |
| elo | 1480.34 | 1480.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.44 | -1.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.19 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |