← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 47% | 50% | 2.09 | value: +4% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 27% | 22% | 3.58 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Andreas Ludwig · FC Utrecht |
| 58' | 🟨 | Wout Brama · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Robin Van der Meer · FC Utrecht |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 83' | 🟥 | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 87' | 🟥 | Andreas Ludwig · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 585.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.84 |
| elo | 1596.02 | 1586.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | -6.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.65 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |