← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 57% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.14 | value: +18% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 20% | 19% | 4.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Terence Kongolo · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 75' | ⚽ | Eric Botteghin · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 87' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 4.52 |
| elo | 1567.46 | 1730.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.75 | 42.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 2.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |