← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 30% | 25% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.76 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 51' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 73' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Bart Schenkeveld · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bart Schenkeveld · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟥 | Bart Schenkeveld · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | ⚽ | Erik Israelsson · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathias Pogba · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathias Pogba · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 766.00 | 1345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1388.86 | 1470.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.79 | -18.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |