← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 71% | 75% | 1.38 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.13 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 10% | 11% | 9.38 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.55 |
| elo | 1418.80 | 1848.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.75 | -5.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 16.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.30 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 21.58 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |