← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
| Heracles win | 24% | 27% | 4.06 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟥 | Bram Castro · Heracles |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Wout Droste · Heracles |
| 62' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · Heracles |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 68' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Heracles |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 248.00 | 918.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1444.92 | 1495.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.78 | -26.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |