← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 23% | 22% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 24' | 🟨 | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kevin Mayi · NEC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 63' | 🟥 | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Theo Zwarthoed · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2045.00 | 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.16 |
| elo | 1495.11 | 1367.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.39 | -5.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.65 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.29 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |