← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 61% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.30 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 16% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Desevio Payne · FC Groningen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 187.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.41 |
| elo | 1567.26 | 1382.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.64 | -22.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.52 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |