← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Adnane Tighadouini · Vitesse |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 52' | 🟨 | Randy Wolters · ADO Den Haag |
| 61' | 🟨 | Donny Gorter · ADO Den Haag |
| 88' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1098.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.65 |
| elo | 1446.15 | 1601.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.08 | 21.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |