← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 38% | 2.58 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 36% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.69 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Dylan Seys · FC Twente '65 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 46' | 🟨 | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
| 49' | 🟥 | Bersant Celina · FC Twente '65 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1338.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.41 |
| elo | 1480.47 | 1557.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.09 | -0.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.42 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |