← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 40% | 36% | 2.44 | fair |
| AZ win | 33% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.62 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kelvin Leerdam · Vitesse |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rens Van Eijden · AZ |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nathan · Vitesse |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Guram Kashia · AZ |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yuning Zhang · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | 881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.51 |
| elo | 1592.10 | 1642.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.38 | -4.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.68 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |