← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 49% | 47% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 25% | 27% | 3.91 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | 🟨 | Simon Tibbling · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.46 |
| elo | 1588.91 | 1564.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.43 | 17.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.26 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |