← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 89% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.05 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 4% | 3% | 24.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 34' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ernestas Šetkus · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | 1093.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.23 |
| elo | 1846.10 | 1448.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.78 | -41.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 43.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 0.89 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 21.98 | — |
| state index | 1.21 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |