← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 46% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟥 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 19' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Thanasis Papazoglou · Roda JC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Thanasis Papazoglou · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.41 |
| elo | 1403.55 | 1397.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.15 | -2.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.89 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |