← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 49% | 58% | 1.98 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.76 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 25% | 19% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Xandro Schenk · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rochdi Achenteh · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andreas Ludwig · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 62' | 🟥 | Darren Maatsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 362.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.04 |
| elo | 1373.11 | 1590.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.67 | 22.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |