← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 43% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 28% | 23% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Mohamed Rayhi · NEC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Frederic Ananou · Roda JC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2032.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.73 |
| elo | 1507.94 | 1429.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.36 | -0.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.72 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |