← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 44% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +4% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Pedro Chirivella · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.35 |
| elo | 1400.52 | 1370.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.09 | -22.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.62 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |