← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 36% | 32% | 2.68 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 36% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Gervane Kastaneer · ADO Den Haag |
| 23' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ashraf El Mahdioui · ADO Den Haag |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · PEC Zwolle |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 71' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1085.00 | 1330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.41 |
| elo | 1459.95 | 1469.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.14 | -52.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |