← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 66% | 71% | 1.47 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.02 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 14% | 12% | 6.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 59' | 🟨 | Michel Breuer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mathias Pogba · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mart Dijkstra · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 873.00 | 751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 0.94 |
| elo | 1649.35 | 1388.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.75 | -26.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.94 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.48 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |