← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | value: +3% |
| NEC win | 21% | 20% | 4.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
| 79' | 🟨 | André Fomitschow · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 2025.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.15 |
| elo | 1467.13 | 1497.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.50 | 11.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.58 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 23.00 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |