← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 46% | 39% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +8% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 27% | 30% | 3.65 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 47' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · Vitesse |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kelvin Leerdam · Vitesse |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 81' | 🟥 | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dylan Seys · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 3.68 |
| elo | 1579.36 | 1562.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.76 | -9.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.41 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |