← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Ivan Calero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ramon Leeuwin · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 744.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1395.07 | 1589.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.63 | 24.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |