← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 40% | 36% | 2.45 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 32% | 36% | 3.02 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Simon Tibbling · FC Groningen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 34' | ⚽ | Desevio Payne · FC Groningen |
| 39' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · FC Groningen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alexander Sørloth · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daryl van Mieghem · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 897.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.81 |
| elo | 1525.16 | 1546.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.88 | 28.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |