← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.52 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 15% | 6.82 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Trevor David · ADO Den Haag |
| 63' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 227.00 | 1078.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.72 |
| elo | 1583.81 | 1467.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.54 | -32.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |