← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.17 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 21% | 20% | 4.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rochdi Achenteh · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 81' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mattias Johansson · AZ |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iliass Bel Hassani · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 865.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.31 |
| elo | 1377.63 | 1642.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.30 | 0.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.65 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |