← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 66% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.74 | value: +16% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 14% | 14% | 7.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · FC Groningen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darren Maatsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 139.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.50 |
| elo | 1552.44 | 1371.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.47 | -9.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.69 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.67 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |