← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 41% | 44% | 2.36 | value: +4% |
| NEC win | 30% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Khalid Karami · SBV Excelsior |
| 55' | 🟨 | Henrico Drost · SBV Excelsior |
| 77' | ⚽ | Dario Đumić · NEC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Reagy Ofosu · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 139.00 | 1997.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.73 |
| elo | 1401.57 | 1481.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | 11.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |