← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 41% | 45% | 2.39 | value: +7% |
| AZ win | 34% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Muamer Tanković · AZ |
| 34' | 🟨 | Thomas Ouwejan · AZ |
| 46' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dylan Seys · FC Twente '65 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Peet Bijen · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 138.00 | 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 3.31 |
| elo | 1572.65 | 1632.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.60 | -1.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |