← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 38% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 34% | 31% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Freek Heerkens · SC Heerenveen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Anouar Kali · Willem II Tilburg |
| 58' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Bijker · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 198.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.81 |
| elo | 1438.34 | 1596.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.51 | -14.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.81 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |